Agree or Disagree: Brexit Is a Net-Benefit to the UK Economy Economic Policy Panel

On June 23rd 2016, the UK gauged support for the country's continued membership in the EU. The referendum resulted in an overall vote to leave the EU, by 51.9%. Economists in favor of Brexit present several benefits: more control of immigration and reduced pressure on public services, housing and jobs; billions of pounds saved in EU membership fees; independent UK trade deals; and no more costly EU regulations and bureaucracy. Others are in favor of remaining and argue that Brexit would result in diminished UK influence over world affairs, lower national security from reduced access to common European criminal databases, more trade barriers between the UK and the EU, job losses, delays in investment into the UK, and risks to business. Agree or disagree: Brexit is (or will be) a net-benefit to the UK economy.

Date Published: July 18, 2016

Last Updated: Aug. 28, 2017

Latest Results
81%
Disagree
12%
No Opinion
6%
Agree
Historical Results
Panelist Response

Vincent Vicard, PhD
Bank of France

71Disagree - Very Confident

On economic grounds, lower trade intergation related to Brexit will have costs in the long term, but limited.

Ross McKitrick, PhD
University of Guelph

41Uncertain/No Opinion

If Brexit means new trade barriers with Europe and no new trade deals elsewhere it will be a net negative. But there are models for the UK and the EU to aim for (e.g. Canada-US) that would preserve free trade while addressing the UK's desire for more autonomy. It will come down to the early signals that the UK sends regarding the deal it wants from the EU, and its plans for non-EU states once independent.

Michael Fritsch, PhD
Friedrich Schiller University Jena

71Disagree - Very Confident

Sabrina L. Di Addario, PhD
Bank of Italy

71Disagree - Very Confident

Michael J. Meurer, PhD
Boston University

61Disagree - Somewhat Confident

Dane Rowlands, PhD
Carleton University

61Disagree - Somewhat Confident

I think that there will be at least short and medium term economic costs as investment slows due to uncertain access to the European market, and possible new referendum on Scottish independence. Full EU market access a la Norway will reduce greatly any gains on less regulation and savings on membership fees gains. Security arrangements will probably be unaffected. The referendum result suggests that many in the UK (well, England) will derive non-pecuniary benefits, but it will be divisive.

David F. Merriman, PhD
University of Illinois

61Disagree - Somewhat Confident

Reint E. Gropp, PhD
Halle Institute for Economic Research

71Disagree - Very Confident

William E. Rees, PhD
University of British Columbia

41Uncertain/No Opinion

Whether Brexit is a net economic benefit is a simplistic question about a complex issue --- and why focus on the economy when many other values are at stake? In fact, many of the impacts economists have discussed re: Brexit are arguably not primarily economic issues (e.g., immigration, UK influence over world affairs, lower national security). Even on the economic side, surely it is the case that some elements of society will benefit, some will lose and all will adapt.

Anton Korinek, PhD
Johns Hopkins University

71Disagree - Very Confident

Although there are arguably some benefits, the costs are very likely to dominate: first of all, Brexit endangers London as the financial headquarter of Europe; secondly, the policies that will replace European regulations are unlikely to be much better; finally, Brexit will require two years of negotations in which the British government will be distracted from other more productive tasks. In my view, the best course of action for Britain would still be a re-vote followed by Bremain.

William W. Grimes, PhD
Boston University

71Disagree - Very Confident

Andrea Giusto, PhD
Dalhousie University

61Disagree - Somewhat Confident

Martin Chalkley, PhD
University of York

71Disagree - Very Confident

There is no way of establishing unfettered trade arrangements under Brexit in anything short of a timescale of years. The accompanying uncertainty and restriction to movement of goods during that process will be a 'first order' cost -- all benefits appear second order and a long way away.

Maurizio Conti, PhD
University of Genova

71Disagree - Very Confident

Every modern General equilibrium trade model I am aware of produces a strong negative effect on gdp and welfare associated to Brexit. The effects are going to be felt in the medium to long run. The depreciation of the pound is probably already a consequence of Brexit.

Franco Peracchi, PhD
University of Rome Tor Vergata

51Disagree - Not Confident

Paul H. Rubin, PhD
Emory University

31Agree - Not Confident

Getting out from EU regulations will be beneficial, but loss in gains from trade might outweigh this benefit unless others increase trade with the UK.

 

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